Non-stationary future return levels for extreme rainfall over Extremadura (southwestern Iberian Peninsula)     

Francisco Javier Acero  Sylvie Parey  Thi Thu Huong Hoang  Didier Dacunha-Castelle  José Agustín García  María Cruz Gallego 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(9):1394-1411

Based on a previous study for temperature, a new method for the calculation of non-stationary return levels for extreme rainfall is described and applied to Extremadura, a region of southwestern Spain, using the peaks-over-threshold approach. Both all-days and rainy-days-only datasets were considered and the 20-year return levels expected in 2020 were estimated taking different trends into account: first, for all days, considering a time-dependent threshold and the trend in the scale parameter of the generalized Pareto distribution; and second, for rainy days only, considering how the mean, variance, and number of rainy days evolve. Generally, the changes in mean, variance and number of rainy days can explain the observed trends in extremes, and their extrapolation gives more robust estimations. The results point to a decrease of future return levels in 2020 for spring and winter, but an increase for autumn.  相似文献   

Low carbon storage of woody debris in a karst forest in southwestern China     

Yangyang Wu  Libin Liu  Chunzi Guo  Zhonghua Zhang  Gang Hu  Jian Ni 《Acta Geochimica》2019,(4):576-586

The properties of woody debris(WD) vary across different forests under various soil conditions.Owing to the relatively shallow and low amounts of soils on karst terrains, it is necessary to determine the WD carbon inventory of karst forests. In this study, we recorded WD with a basal diameter for standing snags and the largeend diameter for fallen logs of ≥ 1 cm. The carbon density of WD in a secondary karst mixed evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved forest that had been clear-cut 55 years ago in southwestern China were inventoried in a 2 ha plot. Woody debris carbon density calculated using specific gravity and carbon concentration was 4.07 Mg C ha^-1. Woody debris with diameters ≥ 10 cm(coarse WD) constituted 53.8% of total carbon storage whereas WD < 10 cm in diameters(fine WD) accounted for more pieces of WD(89.9%).Lithocarpus confinis contributed the most WD carbon(26.5%). Intermediate decayed WD was relatively more abundant, but WD with final decay contributed the least to the total pieces of WD(6.7%). The contribution of WD to carbon storage of karst forest was low compared to other forests worldwide. Significant positive correlations were found between WD carbon and biodiversity(R^2= 0.035,p < 0.01) and elevation(R^2= 0.047, p < 0.01) and negative correlations was found in outcrop coverage(R^2= 0.034, p <0.01). Further studies are needed to elucidate the ecological functions of WD to better understand their roles in maintaining biodiversity, enhancing productivity, and controlling vegetation degradation in karst forest ecosystems.  相似文献   

Eddies in the northwest subtropical pacific and their possible effects on the South China Sea   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

LIU Qinyu Daniel Souza JIA Yinglai LIU Wei 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2005,4(4):329-333

Based on an analysis of drifter data from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment during 1979-1998, the sizes of the eddies in the North subtropical Pacific are determined from the radii of curvature of the drifter paths calculated by using a non-linear curve fitting method. To support the drifter data results, Sea Surface Height from the TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS2 satellite data are analyzed in connection with the drifter paths. It is found that the eddies in the North Pacific （18^＊- 23^＊N and 125^＊-150^＊E） move westward at an average speed of approximately 0.098 ms^-1 and their average radius is 176 km, with radii ranging from 98 km to 298 km. During the nineteen-year period, only 4 out of approximately 200 drifters （2%） actually entered the South China Sea from the area adjacent to the Luzon Strait （18^＊-22^＊N and 121^＊-125^＊E） in the winter. It is also found that eddies from the interior of the North Pacific are unlikely to enter the South China Sea through the Luzon Strait.  相似文献   

过牧及封育对红砂荒漠植被演替的影响   总被引：36，自引：12，他引：24  

王彦荣  曾彦军  付华  陈善科 《中国沙漠》2002,22(4):321-327

红砂灌丛植被是我国西北荒漠地区的主要放牧地,并在生态保护中具重要作用。本试验以内蒙古阿拉善盟不同过牧强度下的退化(轻度、中度和重度)红砂(Reaumuria soongorica)+无芒隐子草(Cleistogenes songorica)荒漠草地为对象。首次研究报道了不同过牧梯度和围栏封育对红砂植被演替的影响。经过6a过牧(平均1.8只羊·hm^-2),植被总盖度已由12%降至8%,平均每年盖度绝对值下降0.7%。随草地过牧加重红砂灌丛在逐渐消亡,在中度和重度退化样地的盖度已分别较轻度样地(7.5%)下降了74%和84% (P<0.05);质量差或产量低的草本在增加;无芒隐子草和匍根骆驼蓬(Peganum nigellastrum)的增加可分别作为该类草地中度和重度过牧演替的指示种。短期封育效果十分显著,封育一年的各样地平均较放牧样地比,植被盖度绝对值提高了1.7%,产草量增加2188%,红砂种子产量是放牧样地的371倍。然而,优势种红砂的产草量和盖度在封育期的相对恢复速率皆随样地退化加重而显著降低(P<0.05),重度退化区盖度封育当年的恢复速率为0。所以,封育是保护和恢复我国红砂荒漠植被的有效措施,但封育宜尽早开始,否则,红砂将恢复缓慢或难以复存。  相似文献   

不同桩底地层超长桩工作性能的数值模拟   总被引：10，自引：2，他引：8  

王俊杰  朱俊高  魏松 《岩土力学》2005,26(2):328-331

超长桩在大型桥梁和高层建筑中得到了越来越广泛应用。以某超长桩基础工程为例,采用三维有限元法分析了桩底地层对超长桩工作性能的影响。土体本构关系采用邓肯-张双曲线非线性弹性模型,混凝土、岩石采用线弹性模型模拟,桩土界面采用有厚度的薄单元模拟。结果表明：桩底地层不同时,桩端阻力和桩侧阻力的比例不同,但承载性状仍属摩擦型桩;桩顶极限荷载不同,但桩身失稳时的极限沉降基本相同;桩端阻力的发挥程度不同,但桩基失稳的原因都是桩侧土体的破坏。  相似文献   

Vertical changes of POC flux and indicators of early degradation of organic matter in the South China Sea   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Jianfang Chen  M. G. Wiesner  H. K. Wong  Lianfu Zheng  Luqiang Xu  Shilong Zheng 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》1999,42(2):120-128

Tie-series sediment trap materials at different water depths and surface sediments in northern and central South China Sea (SCS) were analyzed for organic carbon, amino acids, amino sugars and carbohydrates. Results show that particulate organic carbon (POC) is mainly derived from marine plankton, only 1.4%–1.6% of primary production sinks into deep SCS water column and less than 0.22 % of primary production ultimately reaches the sediments. The ranineralization and dissolution of organic matter as well as the compositional alterations of organic matter mixtures may mainly take place in the upper few hundred meters of water column, deep carbonate (opal) lysocline zones, and interface layers between sediments and water column, rather than in mid-waters. The organic geochemical parameters such as (T ^aa +T ^sug )OC%, AA/AS, Gluam/Galam, Arom. AA/non-prot. AA, ASP/b-ALA, Glu/g-ABA decrease from living marine plankton (or planktonic shells), to settling particulate matter and to sediments suggesting that they appear to be gad early degraded indicators of organic matter. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 49776297). Cruises financially supported by State Oceanic Administration and German Federal Ministry of Research and Technology.  相似文献   

大气季节内振荡的活动与江淮流域夏季旱涝     

李崇银  杨辉 《湖泊科学》2003,15(Z1):16-22

观测资料的分析极为清楚地表明,江淮流域的夏季降水有着极为明显的低频变化,周期为30-60d和近20d的振荡是其最基本的特征,尤其是在多雨的年份.对应江淮夏季多雨(涝)年和少雨(旱)年,大气环流的分析表明其大气季节内振荡(IS0)的形势有着显著的差异.例如在多雨(少雨)年,在长江以南的850hPa上为一个低频(IS0)反气旋(气旋)性环流控制,而中国北部和日本一带为气旋(反气旋)性环流,从而在江淮流域形成较强的低频辐合(辐散)气流;在200hPa的青藏高原上却为一个低频气旋(反气旋)性环流所控制.分析还表明,对应多雨年,在江淮流域有明显的由中高讳度向南传播和由低玮度向北传播的大气低频振荡的汇合情况;而对应于少雨年,由中高纬度向南传播的低频系统较不明显,在江淮流域低频系统的汇合也较为不清楚.  相似文献   

临沂历史遗留废弃矿山地质环境现状及治理规划研究          下载免费PDF全文

李鑫宇  孙士伟  师廷兴  吴爽  周铭明  刘乃彬  周媛 《山东国土资源》2023,39(7):14-20

本文总结了临沂市未治理历史遗留废弃矿山的分布情况、开采方式、开采矿种等现状,归纳了因废弃矿山产生的土地损毁及压占、矿山地质灾害及其他环境问题,依据废弃矿山对生态环境问题的影响程度对全市废弃矿山进行分区并规划用地方向,根据矿山生态环境损害问题分析废弃矿山生态修复技术及模式,期望通过临沂市废弃矿山恢复治理产生明显的社会效益、环境效益和经济效益。  相似文献   

大气环流异常对山东雨季降水的影响   总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3  

王庆  孙即霖  刘诗军  周晓英 《热带气象学报》2005,21(2):181-190

利用1958～2003年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对山东旱涝年500hPa高度距平、高(200hPa)低(925hPa)层散度距平、OLR距平分布以及115～123°E山东东西边界范围内的平均垂直速度进行合成分析,并与华北旱涝年大气环流的分布特征进行了对比。结果发现:(1)北半球500hPa夏季存在的东亚-太平洋遥相关型(EAP)对山东夏季降水产生重要影响,山东涝年夏季500hPa呈现出EAP型,旱年呈负EAP型。(2)山东涝年,鄂霍茨克海高压春季偏强、夏季偏弱,山东上游易维持低压槽区,副高偏北,热带地区对流活动加强,Hadley和Walker环流加强,山东上空盛行上升运动。旱年与涝年的特征基本相反,只是鄂霍茨克海高压在春季和夏季均较常年偏强。(3)不同旱年(涝年)的500hPa特征与旱年(涝年)平均情况相似,只是有时距平中心位置和强度不同。特别是涝年,冷空气强度、入侵路径以及副高的位置均有差别。(4)华北旱涝年500hPa高度距平与山东不同。华北旱年500hPa欧亚大陆中高纬度呈现出EU遥相关分布,且华北涝年夏季鄂霍茨克海和朝鲜-日本地区位势高度变化不显著。(5)影响山东夏季降水的热带强迫源区主要位于热带印度洋、南海-热带西太平洋,两者实现遥相关的可能机制是热带强迫所激发的大尺度准定常Rossby波列的传播。  相似文献   

西太平洋副热带高压西伸过程的合成特征及其可能机理   总被引：15，自引：6，他引：9  

罗玲  何金海  谭言科 《气象科学》2005,25(5):465-473

利用1970~2000年6月NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,根据(20~30°N,115~125°E)区域内500 hPa的涡度变化选取了12次西太平洋副热带高压西伸过程,合成了西太平洋副热带高压西伸过程中对流层高层和低层的环流演变特征。结果表明,(20~30°N,115~125°E)区域内500 hPa负涡度的增加对应着西太平洋副热带高压的西伸过程。在副热带高压西伸过程中,对流层高层南亚高压的中心位置虽然稳定少动,但是由于日本东南部反气旋的西移,使得南亚高压东侧的脊明显地加强东伸,这可能对对流层中层副热带高压的西伸具有重要作用。在对流层低层,源于澳大利亚北侧的气流越过赤道向北传播,经由南海季风槽后到达我国江淮流域,从而影响副热带高压西侧的偏南气流。  相似文献